College Basketball & Hockey Favorites Overpriced, AFC Contenders Undervalued

The sports world never stands still, and neither do the prediction markets. From feel-good PGA victories to fan revolts in the Premier League, the news cycle keeps churning. But for astute traders, the real action lies in identifying where the market is misreading the tea leaves, especially when it comes to championship probabilities.

PGA Tour's Resilient Return & Premier League's VAR Headache

Gary Woodland's recent PGA Tour win, his first since the 2019 U.S. Open and coming weeks after revealing a PTSD diagnosis, is a testament to resilience. While an inspiring personal story, this event doesn't immediately translate into broad, actionable prediction market plays for future majors unless specific long-shot 'Woodland to win X major' contracts emerge at highly favorable prices. Keep an eye on his form, but for now, it's more human interest than market mover.

Across the pond, a new survey reveals three in four Premier League fans want VAR scrapped, with nine out of ten believing it has made football less enjoyable. This overwhelming sentiment could pressure league officials, potentially leading to future rule changes or even VAR's eventual removal. While there isn't a direct market on 'Will VAR be scrapped by X date?' currently, this kind of strong public opinion can create opportunities for such markets if they open, signaling a potential 'YES' play on modification or removal at early stages.

Meanwhile, Bo Bichette's struggles at the plate for the Blue Jays, leading to boos from Mets fans, highlight the volatile nature of player performance. Unless there are specific markets on individual player statistics or team management changes directly tied to such slumps, this remains largely noise for broader championship or division markets.

Women's College Basketball: UConn Overpriced, UCLA a Steal

The Women's College Basketball Championship market is showing a significant disconnect. The market implies a 71% chance of UConn winning the championship, priced at 71¢. This is a classic case of overstating dominance in a single-elimination format. Even for a top-tier team, a 71% implied probability for a Final Four scenario is simply too high. Our analysis suggests a fair value closer to 50%, making a 'NO' play on UConn a compelling opportunity.

Conversely, UCLA, also a #1 seed and confirmed Final Four participant, is trading at a mere 13¢, implying a 13% chance of winning. This valuation significantly undervalues their position. As a confirmed Final Four team, their probability is far greater than 13%. Our fair value estimate sits around 25%, indicating that the market is presenting a strong 'YES' opportunity for UCLA to take the title.

AFC Championship: Ravens Overvalued, Jaguars & Patriots Undervalued

Looking ahead to the 2027 AFC Championship, the market is heavily swayed by historical reputation rather than recent performance. The Baltimore Ravens, despite an 8-9 losing record in the 2025 season, are priced at 14.0¢. This implies a top-tier contender status that their recent performance simply does not support. Our analysis places their fair value closer to 6%, making 'NO' on the Ravens a strong position.

On the other side of the ledger, the Jacksonville Jaguars, coming off a robust 13-4 record, are priced at 7.0¢. This is a clear undervaluation for a team that demonstrated high-caliber play. Their fair value is estimated at 12%, presenting a solid 'YES' opportunity.

Even more striking are the New England Patriots. With the best record in the AFC at 14-3, they are only the sixth most favored team, trading around 10.0¢. This is a significant mispricing. Smart money should be looking to go 'YES' on the Jaguars and especially the Patriots, capitalizing on the market's oversight of recent performance.

College Hockey: Top Contenders Inflated

The NCAA College Hockey National Championship market is another area ripe for correction. Top contenders like North Dakota and Michigan appear significantly overpriced. North Dakota, trading at 33¢, has a fair value closer to 18% based on external betting odds. This 15¢ premium makes selling 'YES' contracts on North Dakota an attractive proposition.

Similarly, Michigan's 'YES' price of 30¢ is 10¢ higher than its estimated fair value of 20%. The aggregated implied probabilities of just the top four teams on the market sum to over 120%, a mathematical impossibility that screams market inefficiency. Until new, overwhelmingly favorable information emerges, these inflated prices present clear opportunities to buy 'NO' on these favorites.

Men's College Basketball: Don't Bet the Farm on a #1 Seed

The market for the Men's College Basketball Championship seed winner is severely overpricing the #1 seed. At 97¢, the market implies a 97% probability of a #1 seed winning. Historically, #1 seeds win around 65% of the time. While this probability increases deeper into the tournament, 97% is an extreme overstatement, especially with other elite teams like Duke and UConn (likely #2 or #3 seeds) still in contention. The fair value for a #1 seed is closer to 75%, making the 'NO' contract on a #1 seed a high-confidence play.

Conversely, the #2 seed contract is significantly underpriced at 5¢, implying only a 5% chance. With strong contenders like Duke or UConn potentially holding #2 seeds, their chances are far greater. Our fair value estimate for a #2 seed winning is around 15%, indicating a compelling 'YES' opportunity on the #2 seed.

These market mispricings across college basketball, college hockey, and the AFC Championship offer clear avenues for savvy traders. The smart money is shorting the overvalued favorites and going long on the undervalued contenders.