Sports Markets Misprice Favorites: NIT, NHL, NBA Odds Go Awry
Prediction markets are showing significant inefficiencies across college hoops and pro leagues. Sharp traders can capitalize on overvalued favorites in the NIT, NHL, and NBA MVP races.
Even in the dynamic world of sports, where outcomes often feel unpredictable, prediction markets can reveal clear mispricings. Recent analyses highlight several opportunities for traders to leverage market inefficiencies, from college basketball's NIT to the NHL's Eastern Conference and the NBA's MVP race.
NIT Championship: Illinois State's Overpriced Dream
The Kalshi market for the Men's College Basketball NIT Tournament Champion presents a stark example of overvaluation. Illinois State's contract currently trades at 8¢, implying an 8% chance of winning the entire tournament. This stands in sharp contrast to broader sports betting markets, which assign Illinois State a near-zero probability. Futures odds from traditional sportsbooks position Auburn (+110), New Mexico (+210), and Tulsa (+380) as the primary contenders. Furthermore, Illinois State faces Auburn in the semifinals as a +220 underdog, implying only about a 30% chance of even advancing to the final.
The discrepancy is significant. The 8¢ price for Illinois State is far too high; its fair value is closer to 2%. The sum of all Kalshi contract prices for the NIT Champion is 104¢, indicating a slight overall over-round, with Illinois State being the primary contributor to this inefficiency. Traders should consider selling the "YES" contract for Illinois State, or buying the "NO" contract, to capitalize on this clear overpricing. Conversely, Auburn's price at 45¢ is much closer to its fair value of approximately 47¢, derived from its +110 futures odds, suggesting it's relatively stable.
NHL Eastern Conference: Tampa Bay's Costly Crown
Moving to the ice, the Kalshi market for the NHL's Eastern Conference Finals Winner shows a similar pattern of misallocation. The Tampa Bay Lightning are priced at 29¢, making them the implied favorite. However, this contradicts their standing in the conference, where they are ranked third. The top two teams, the Carolina Hurricanes (47-21) and Buffalo Sabres (46-21), are priced lower, with the Hurricanes at 26¢.
The collective market also signals inefficiency, with the sum of all "YES" contracts for the Eastern Conference winner totaling 113¢. This mathematical impossibility confirms that at least some teams are significantly overpriced. Tampa Bay's fair value is estimated closer to 20¢, making its current 29¢ price a prime target for selling (buying "NO"). The Hurricanes, as the #1 seed, appear undervalued at 26¢, suggesting potential upside for a "YES" position.
NBA MVP: SGA's Overinflated Odds in a Tight Race
In the NBA MVP market, the combined probability for the top two contenders, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) and Victor Wembanyama, has reached an untenable level. SGA's contract trades at 79¢, while Wembanyama's is at 24¢. Their combined total of 103¢ is impossible for mutually exclusive outcomes (only one player can win MVP). This indicates that at least one, if not both, are overpriced.
While SGA's Thunder are the #1 seed (60-16), and he remains a strong favorite, recent reports describe the MVP race as "particularly tight," with increasing media momentum for Wembanyama. The 79¢ price for SGA implies a near-certainty that does not align with the competitive narrative. His fair value is estimated closer to 65¢. This makes the "YES" contract for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win 2026 NBA MVP a strong candidate for selling (buying "NO"). Wembanyama's 24¢ price is also slightly inflated due to recent hype, with a fair value closer to 20¢, but SGA represents the more significant mispricing.
Orlando Magic's Fading Playoff Hopes
Finally, the market on whether "Orlando pro basketball to have 45+ wins in the 2025-26 season?" presents another clear-cut opportunity. The Orlando Magic are experiencing a well-documented "season-ending slide," including a recent team-record 52-point loss. With the regular season rapidly concluding, the team's ability to secure several more wins is severely diminished. The market currently overstates the probability of the Magic reaching 45 wins.
Given their recent performance and limited remaining games, the chances of them hitting 45 wins are extremely low. The market's fair value for this outcome is estimated at a mere 0.05%, significantly below any current trading price above that level. Traders looking for a high-probability bet should consider buying the "NO" contract on the Orlando Magic achieving 45+ wins this season.
These instances across college basketball, NHL, and NBA demonstrate that even in widely followed sports, prediction markets can deviate from fundamental probabilities, offering strategic entry and exit points for informed traders.
